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TIM ROBINSON FRAeS offers preliminary thoughts and analysis on the Air Force aspect of the Ukraine conflict.
Ukraine Air Superiority
As this is written, Ukraine is fighting for its life (its "battle of Britain", as one commentator put it) following the invasion of Russian troops on 24 February. As you might expect, details are sparse, information unverified, and there is a natural tendency to downplay each country's successes and failures. Despite the granularity of videos and photos on social media, backed by open-source intelligence that can geolocate photos down to the smallest detail, the "big picture" is somewhat missing — especially on the Russian side and the real goals of its campaign.
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However, we can add preliminary analysis based on the observations so far. The first is that the Russian invasion is not going according to plan - one report suggests the capture of Kyiv and major cities in 48 hours. Some experts have predicted that Russia will launch a large-scale Gulf War-style "Desert Storm" air campaign, investing in cruise missiles, EW, PGMs, hypersonic and stealth fighters to destroy the Ukrainian air force and attack air defenses and command . Centers, before their ground forces. Instead, Moscow's generals appear to have ignored logistics and attempted in 2003 to seize key Iraqi Freedom-style "Thunder Runs" targets without first gaining air superiority. This was a very expensive mistake.
The cruise opened the campaign with ballistic missiles and tactical airstrikes, and the first sign of revealing the Russian plan was a daring helicopter attack on Hostomel airfield outside Kyiv, home to the Antonov jet and the giant An225 transporter. It is reported that 6-7 helicopters along with two latest Ka-52 attack helicopters were shot down in a counter-assault. The VDV forces attached to this outpost were then driven off, causing the 18 Il-76s with the main force to terminate their flight and return to base. Despite this setback, however, the Russians attempted another airstrike, this time reportedly losing two Il-76s in the process – one was shot down by a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet. If that's true, and both planes were full of paratroopers, that means nearly 300 elite soldiers may have died in those firefights — a high cost that illustrates the dangers of operating troops in contested airspace. The influx of Stinger MANPADS from NATO countries will make life even more dangerous for Russian helicopters and aircrews.
Despite its vast superiority in combat aircraft (some 300+ combat aircraft versus less than 100 in Ukraine), the Russian Air Force has been conspicuously absent in air warfare, a fact noted by several defense experts and analysts. It is only now that the large strike packages of the Su-30 and Su-34 have been assembled. This is in stark contrast to US/Western airpower doctrine, which emphasizes large strikes, SEADs, and escort packages to defeat the enemy on Day 1 of any air campaign.
Despite the military's extensive use of multiple tactical UAVs for massive artillery strikes in eastern Ukraine since 2014, there is little evidence of Russian UAV activity.
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Another observation is that the SA-21/S400 SAM, the "big bad" of NATO planners and a major selling point of the F-35 (buy stealth if you want to fly in three-digit active SAM airspace), failed to clear Ukrainian Air Force Sky - Active longer than expected. This may be a matter of simple physics, the effective range of SAM systems is still dictated by the radar horizon, and the UkrAF's tactics of flying low and keeping the ground cluttered may also have helped. Videos of Ukrainian fighter jets have seen many low-level sightings, which helped establish the legend of the jet ace "Kyiv Ghost". Russian air defense operators may also be reluctant to fire in an area where they operate the majority of their aircraft and where both countries operate similar types. For example, in 2008, three or four Russian planes were shot down by them in Georgia. As Peter Hoare of the Royal Aeronautical Society's Air & Space Power Group notes: “Air defense integration has always been Russia's Achilles heel. How easy it is for Western forces to penetrate Syrian air defenses (guaranteed by Russia) to attack chemical weapons facilities. "Remember."
Additionally, prior to the crisis, the Ukrainian Air Force observed training in operations dispersed from road bases. This, as well as the difficulty of completely closing down air bases (Cold War NATO planners expected multiple strikes against East German Warsaw Pact bases), could allow the UkrAF to operate against a much larger adversary than many analysts expected. .
While total Ukrainian Air Force losses are unknown, recent footage of Turkish-made Ukrainian TB2 drones destroying at least two Buk air defense systems and a convoy suggests the armed UAVs are still operating and inflicting damage on Russian ground forces. At least one short-range SA-22 air defense was also abandoned in the deep mud of Kherson to the south, highlighting some of the logistical challenges.
There are also some calls for NATO or the UN to create a no-fly zone (NFZ) to protect civilians on the ground from the worst airstrikes. However, this would bring NATO pilots into direct conflict with the Russians, and crossing President Putin's "red line" for direct involvement in the conflict could escalate into a wider war. The fear of imposing any NFZ is that a NATO warplane would inevitably have to hit long-range Russian S400M sites in Russia or face long-range fire.
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However, former RAF Chief Marshal Greg Bagwell, chairman of the UK Air and Space Energy Association, suggested on social media that an NFZ could work - if it was a UN-mandated NFZ, managing the risk of escalation (with the West .pilots "turn the other cheek" if targeted by SAMs outside Ukraine) and possibly if F-22/F-35s were used. Using stealth fighters that could ignore the S400M threat, but any aircraft or helicopters (including the Ukrainian Air Force) or active air defense units within Ukraine's own borders could be a way for the international community to intervene to protect civilian lives . As Bagwell notes, "Do the potential benefits of international work on the NFZ outweigh Ukraine's desire to maintain any domestic air capabilities?"
But RAeS Air & Space Power Group expert Peter Hoare warns that despite the West's desire to “do something” and intervene: “Putin's threat of nuclear escalation makes this [NFZ] a non-starter.
Meanwhile, on March 1, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the media that the NFZ was "not on the agenda of any NATO country" because of the risk of escalation with Russia. "This is a very big step.
While the NFZ seems unlikely now, it is reasonable to assume that Kyiv, which has openly supplied weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian government, is taking advantage of the West's impressive ISR capabilities through satellite, air and electronic intelligence. ISR flights by NATO nations prior to the conflict certainly helped to build a series of battles and reveal the main thrust of the attackers.
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The conflict also saw geopolitical realities flip overnight, from the assumption that the McDonald's countries would not go to war to the disruption of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Germany, in particular, has changed its stance from its previous pacifist approach to international relations, announcing that it will raise defense spending by up to 4% to meet and even exceed NATO commitments. Berlin's decision to acquire the F-35 to replace the Tornado should also be accelerated. It is a seismic shift that a week ago was about to push the German defense industry out of the investment markets. His negative image.
Meanwhile, the European Union surprised the world by announcing that it would supply warplanes to Ukraine through its member states. It was understood to be the MiG-29 in Poland and Slovakia, as it could be deployed and deployed very quickly by Ukrainian pilots.
However, in an example of how quickly things are moving, it was reported on March 1 that both Poland and Slovakia have now gone back on that promise, saying they will no longer supply MiGs to Ukraine. It is not yet known whether this is because the stage of the conflict is already too late for them to make a difference, the EU/NATO countries are worried that this will be an escalation in the eyes of Moscow, or the improved Western MiGs (with, for example, NATO and IFF protected radios) Ukrainian pilots would not be able to fly without more training and support.
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